Worldwide expenditures on medicines is forecast to increase 3%–6% between 2013 and 2017 to $1,170–$1,200 billion, excluding off-invoice discounts and rebates. Spending in developed countries is estimated to grow 1%–4% to $650–$680 billion. Spending in pharmerging markets will increase 10%–13% to $370–$400 billion, with spending in China estimated to grow 14%–17% to $160–$190 billion. Spending in Brazil and India is estimated to grow even faster, increasing 11%–14% each to $38–$48 billion and $22–$32 billion, respectively. In 2017, the top three drug markets in developed markets are expected to be oncology, diabetes and anti-tumor necrosis factors, with sales of $74–$84 billion, $34–$39 billion and $32–$37 billion, respectively. In the pharmerging markets, the top three drug markets will be pain drugs, other central nervous system drugs and antibiotics, with sales of $22–$25 billion, $20–$25 billion and $18–$21 billion, respectively. The market share for biologics is expected to increase from 18% in 2012 to 19%–20% in 2017, and generic drugs’ market share is expected to grow from 27% to 36%. Generics are estimated to account for 63% of total spending in pharmerging markets in 2017. Spending on specialty medicines in developed markets is forecast to increase 30% over five years to $193 billion. Currently, 641 products are in late-stage development.

Source: IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics