R&D spending by drug firms 2012–2018 will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% to $149.4 billion, compared to 6.6% for 2004–2011. Pharmaceutical R&D spending fell 0.3% in 2012 to $137.4 billion and should fall 1.5% this year but grow 1.6% in 2014. Novartis is expected to maintain its position from 2012 to 2018 as the drug firm that spends the most on R&D, increasing spending at a CAGR of 3% to $10.3 billion. The four other biggest spenders through 2018 will be Roche, Merck, Pfizer and Sanofi. Among the top 20 drug firms, R&D spending by Pfizer, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, Takeda and Amgen should slow at CAGRs of 1%, 2%, 0.7%%, 3% and less than 1%, respectively. Sales of biotech products should grow at a CAGR of 7.2% for 2012–2018 to increase their share of sales of prescription and over the counter drugs from 20% in 2012 to 25% in 2018. Small molecule drugs will have a CAGR of 2.9%.

Source: EvaluatePharma