Since IBO’s last article on 2016 economic forecasts (see IBO 1/15/16), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued an update to its October 2015 World Economic Outlook. Released earlier this month, the update outlines the factors influencing the revisions, such as China’s economy moving away from manufacturing and investment and toward services and consumption; decreased energy and commodity prices; and the steady constriction of monetary policy in the US, while other major advanced economies ease their monetary policies. The IMF’s revised 2015 estimates and 2016 projections are presented in the table below.

Latin America, and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan’s 2015 figures have remained the same. Developing Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are estimated to have grown faster than the IMF’s previous 2015 figures, while Emerging Europe’s revised 2016 forecast has been increased by 0.1%.

According to the IMF’s revisions, growth in emerging markets and developing economies continued to slow in 2015, while advanced economies experienced a slight recuperation. Global economic activity, especially in emerging and developing markets and economies, is forecast to be on a gradual incline in 2016 as compared to the numbers in October 2015’s World Economic Outlook. The slowdown in China, due to the restructuring of the Chinese economy, will continue to have an effect on global economic growth prospects in 2016. Generally, the global growth forecast has decreased 0.2% for 2015 compared to the October 2015 estimates, and global trade growth has been revised to reflect a decrease of over 0.5% due to changes in China and distressed economies. Brazil’s changes reflect the political and economic uncertainties occurring due to the recession, while revisions to the Middle East’s numbers illustrate the economic effects of lower oil prices.