The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report, released in May, states that North American production related to shale gas, light tight oil (LTO) and oil sands is expected to affect all aspects of the oil supply chain over the next five years. Among non-OPEC producers, North American supply is forecast to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2012 and 2018. This supply will shift the quality of crude mix worldwide toward lighter grades. It also may lead to the greater use of natural gas in the transport sector. Non–Organization for Economic and Cooperation (OECD) countries will be the primary oil consumers. Oil consumption by emerging and developing economies is expected to grow from 49% of world demand in 2012 to 54% in 2018. Non-OECD economies are also expected to account for more than half of crude imports by 2018. In total, global liquids supply will increase by 8.4 mb/d from 2012 to 2018, including a 2.8 mb/d increase in crude supply, a 2.3 mb/d increase in US LTO and a 2.0 mb/d increase in natural gas liquids.

Source: IEA