IBO Stock Indexes Rebound in 2012
US equity markets recorded strong gains in 2012 despite only modest economic growth. For the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ climbed 7.3%, 13.4% and 15.9%, respectively. The markets shrugged off anxious headlines brought by the “fiscal cliff” crisis, European sovereign debt problems and slowing growth in emerging markets. Instead, investors focused on the added quantitative easing measures by the Federal Reserve and improving economic fundamentals. The housing and financial sectors rebounded during the year and the unemployment rate declined 50 basis points to 7.8%. In spite of economic expansion and positive momentum in the US, anxious headlines over Congress’s effort to ratify spending cuts and raise the debt ceiling will certainly plague the markets in early 2013.
Following mostly lower returns in 2011, the IBO Stock Indexes recorded robust growth in 2012. A number of companies in the Indexes exceeded EPS expectations on a quarterly basis and reported steady organic revenue growth due to strong demand from emerging and applied markets, steady sales to pharmaceutical customers and new products. Furthermore, company earnings benefited from cost saving measures and stock repurchases. Most companies in the Indexes did face adversities, especially in the second half of the year, due to concerns over budget cuts, weakness in US and European academic and government markets, and some industrial slowing in emerging markets.
In 2012, all four Indexes posted double digit gains, led by the Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index, which gained 20.7% to 158.24. All seven companies increased by double digits. AMETEK led the Index, rising 34%. The Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index, which declined by double-digit last year, grew 17.2% to 662.53 in 2012. Eleven of the 18 companies increased in value, led by Illumina, which jumped 82%. Pressure BioSciences lost the most ground, slumping 67%. The Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index rose 15.7% to 566.22 for the year, with only three companies advancing and four declining. Veeco Instruments recorded the largest gain, climbing 42%, while SDIX lost 42% of its value. The Lab Consumables/Equipment Stock Index increased 15.1%, ending the year at 655.82, with all companies improving. Kewaunee Scientific posted the largest increase, rising 49%.
Index Changes
There were several changes to the IBO Indexes this year. X-Rite was removed following its acquisition by Danaher (see IBO 4/15/12). Helicos BioSciences, which is currently under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, was removed in February 2012. MKS Instruments was added at the beginning of year.
Gainers and Losers
This year’s list of the top five gainers and decliners was chosen from the 39 companies in the four IBO Stock Indexes (see graph above). While three of the top five performers in 2012—Illumina, PerkinElmer and Thermo Fisher Scientific—were laboratory instrumentation companies, all three companies further expanded their diagnostics businesses in 2012. Following a sharp decline in 2011, Illumina’s share price jumped 82% to lead all companies in the Indexes. For the first nine months of the year, sales improved modestly, rising only 4.2%; however, the company beat EPS expectations for each of the first three quarters due to strong sequencing and whole-genome service revenues, improved gross margin and lower operating expenses. The company also expanded its clinical business and launched a new desktop next-generation sequencing system, which, according to the company, reached a 50% market penetration based on units installed. For the first nine months, adjusted EPS grew 23% as the company decreased its number of diluted shares outstanding by 7.3%. Shares were also significantly boosted by the takeover bid by Roche (see IBO 1/31/12) and renewed speculation over an increased offer in December.
PerkinElmer and Thermo also beat EPS consensus for each of the first three quarters as a result of revenue growth and cost containment efforts. Both companies reported strong demand in Asia, higher sales of analytical products and improved service revenues. PerkinElmer also benefited from the transfer of certain manufacturing operations to China, improved productivity and product mix. Company EPS grew 17% for the first nine months. In addition to higher service and analytical instrument sales, Thermo reported strong demand for laboratory consumables and bioscience products. For the first nine months, sales grew 9.2%, 4% organically, and adjusted EPS expanded 20%. The company spent $800 million to repurchase 15.1 million shares during the first nine months. As a result, the number of shares outstanding fell by 5.0%. All three companies projected slower EPS growth for the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, full-year adjusted EPS for Illumina, PerkinElmer and Thermo are expected to climb 22%, 13% and 17%, respectively.
The laboratory equipment company Kewaunee Scientific was also among this year’s top performers. During the last three quarter ending October 31, 2012, the company expanded its direct dealer network in Europe, reduced operating expenses and significantly improved profitability. For the same period, EPS increased more than 16 fold. The fifth largest gainer, Veeco, jumped 42% despite a 72% decline in adjusted EPS for the first three quarters. The company faced weak Asian demand and overcapacity in the LED market. However, speculation remains that the industry has reached a cyclical bottom and manufacturers of LED equipment tools such as Veeco should experience an early recovery. In addition, the company reported strong demand for consumables, aftermarket products and services, as well as positive sales of data storage products.
Other large companies recording double-digit price gains were Agilent Technologies, Bruker, QIAGEN, Life Technologies and Waters. Despite the economic uncertainties over the last several years, all five companies invested in new product development, executed strategic acquisitions and expanded into emerging territories. Agilent’s fiscal full-year EPS grew 6% compared with 48% a year ago, but the company posted steady operating improvements from cost saving measures and acquisition synergies. Bruker reported organic revenue growth of 12.6% for the first nine months due to product introductions and higher aftermarket sales. However, the company expects a slight decline in full-year EPS because of increased R&D and production costs. QIAGEN expected full-year adjusted EPS to grow 8% as a result of strong molecular diagnostic sales and acquisitions. Full-year adjusted EPS for Life Technologies is projected to climb 7%, driven by strong demand for Ion Torrent systems, consumables and bioproduction products. Waters projected a 2% rise in adjusted full-year EPS due to new products, lower selling and administrative costs and share repurchases. Waters and Life Technologies lowered their number of diluted shares outstanding by 3.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
Similar to a year ago, the biggest decliners in 2012 were mostly smaller firms. Four of the five largest decliners were laboratory instrument companies. Two of this year’s largest decliners, Pressure BioSciences and Affymetrix, were also among last year’s worst performers. Pressure BioSciences slumped 67% to $0.20 per share. The company widened its net loss for the first nine months and burned through most of its cash. However, it raised additional assets through a private placement and established several marketing and distribution agreements. The funds will be used to increase commercialization of its Pressure Cycling Technology products, whose sales grew more than 30% for the first nine months. While Affymetrix made several operational changes to focus on the higher growth validation and routine testing markets, the company continues to report negative EPS and expects 2012 organic sales to be flat or marginally lower.
Similar to Pressure BioSciences, Transgenomic declined despite a number of improvements. For the nine months, sales improved 3.4% and EPS loss narrowed by 60%. The company also released several new genomic testing products and raised additional capital. However, the company diluted its shares base by 19 million shares through a private placement offering. Pacific Bioscience fell 39% for the year and is down 89% from its IPO on October 27, 2010 (see IBO 10/31/10). The company reported a 73.6% drop in third-quarter sales and faces a class action lawsuit due to alleged false accuracy claims for its RS DNA sequencing system. In addition, the company announced layoffs of 130 employees in September due to the company’s high cash burn rate. Finally, SDIX fell 42% for the year as pro forma sales for the first nine months declined 9.3%. The company divested its Food Safety and GMO businesses (see IBO 10/15/12) during the year.
Other companies such as Luminex and Nanometrics also declined in double digits. Luminex missed EPS expectations in each of the first three quarters and fell short of analysts’ revenue guidance in the third quarter. The company trimmed its full-year revenue estimates due to budget concerns in Europe and projected EPS to fall 21% for the year. Similar to Veeco, sales for Nanometrics were negatively impacted by the weak LED market. The company estimated a full-year adjusted EPS decline of 84%.
Based on a three-year average, Cepheid, FEI and Zygo boasted average annual gains of more than 40% (see graph, page 3). The fourth strongest gainer over a three-year period was FEI, which gained 36% this year alone and continues to expand its market share for electron microscopes and deliver strong EPS growth. For the three-year period, FEI adjusted EPS grew by an average of 105% annually. Zygo and Cepheid made the list despite falling 11% and 2% in 2012. Both companies benefited from an 82% price increase in 2010. AMETEK and Roper Industries, which grew by double-digits in 2012, exceeded adjusted EPS expectations in each 2011 and 2010. The companies projected 18% and 14% adjusted EPS growth for 2012, respectively.
International
Following sharp declines in 2011, international equity markets also rebounded in 2012. Asian markets were robust, led by the Japan Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, which each climbed 22.9%. The Japanese markets benefited from higher exports as a result of the yen’s weakness and new leadership’s commitment to stimulus spending. The China Shanghai Composite and the India Sensex 30 rose 4.4% and 25.7%, respectively. European markets faced significant selling pressure during the first half of the year due to bankruptcy concerns in Greece and Spain, but recovered following the European Central Bank’s commitment to stabilize the debt crisis. A number of major European Indexes, including the German DAX, French CAC 40, Sweden OMX 30 and Swiss SMI grew by double digits. Even the Greek Athex Index gained 33.4%. The London FTSE 100 Index improved 5.8%. The Spain IBEX 35 Index was the only European index to decline, falling 4.7%.
Most international stocks in IBO’s stock table advanced in 2012. For the year, four Pacific Rim companies increased in value, led by JEOL, which gained 28%. Techcomp and Hitachi High-Technologies fell 18% and 3%, respectively.
In 2012, 11 European companies in the stock table traded higher, while Alpha MOS and Exiqon contracted 38% and 14%, respectively. Sartorius led all European firms, gaining 112%. Other significant gains for the year included Renishaw and Scientific Digital Imaging, which improved 106% and 83%, respectively.
Among the 18 international companies in the stock table with at least a three-year trading history, 13 companies recorded annual average share gains from 2010 to 2012. Over the three years, Oxford Instruments, Sartorius and Renishaw shares increased by an average annual return of 200%, 110% and 93%, respectively. All three companies reported significantly higher revenue growth and EPS results over the period. Based on a three-year average, Alpha MOS and JEOL lost the most value among non-US companies in the table, declining by an annual average of 20% and 10%, respectively.
December
US stock markets soared in the final trading day of the year on optimism that Congress would reach an agreement on tax increased and spending cutbacks. In addition, third-quarter US GDP growth was revised upward to 3.1% annualized from the previous estimate of 2.7%. The Dow improved 0.6% for the month to 13,104.14, the S&P 500 increased 0.7% to 1,426.19 and the NASDAQ advanced 0.3% to 3,019.51.
All four IBO Stock Indexes increased in December, led by the Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index, which climbed 3.6%. The Diversified Instrumentation, Laboratory Instrumentation and Lab Consumables/Equipment Indexes rose 2.3%, 1.5% and 0.2%, respectively.
Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index
In December, the Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index improved 1.5%. Twelve companies advanced, Pressure BioSciences was unchanged, and five declined. Harvard Bioscience increased the most, rising 11%, while Transgenomic fell 19%.
On December 3, Affymetrix announced plans to redeem its $3.9 million senior convertible notes due 2038 on January 15, 2013. Shares rose 1.2% the next day. After trading hours on December 11, Harvard Bioscience announced an IPO filing for its wholly-owned subsidiary Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology. Shares jumped 13.2% the next trading day. Sequenom was again volatile this month. The company climbed 4.4% on December 7 after receiving an initial patent notification for detecting fetal aneuploidy. However, shares slipped 1.2% on December 17 after the issuance for the patent was withdrawn. Illumina soared 7.8% on December 20 following reports of a higher takeover bid from Roche. Cepheid climbed 1.0% on December 28 after the company announced FDA approval for its Xpert CT/NG test used to detect chlamydia and gonorrhea.
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index
The Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index grew 3.6% in December, with five companies trading higher and two losing ground. MKS Instruments had the highest return, gaining 6%. SDIX declined 1%. On December 10, B. Riley cut Veeco to “Neutral” from “Buy.”
Laboratory Consumables/Equipment Stock Index
The Laboratory Consumables/Equipment Stock Index edged higher by 0.2% this month. Five companies contracted, led by Techne, which fell 4%. Pall and Sigma-Aldrich each improved 1%. On December 10, Enzo Biochem narrowed its fiscal first-quarter EPS loss ending October 31 by 25% to $0.09. Shares traded flat the next day.
Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index
In December, the Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index advanced 2.3%, with five companies in positive territory and two declining. Agilent recorded the largest gain, rising 7%, while Illinois Tool Works slipped 1%.
Roper Industries raised its quarterly dividend by 20% on December 11 to $0.17 per share. The next day, Danaher reaffirmed its full-year EPS and projected 2013 EPS of $3.40–$3.55 on organic revenue growth of 1%–4%. Shares rose 2.1%. BMO Capital initiated Danaher on December 7 with an “Outperform” rating.
International Shares
Prices for four Pacific Rim companies increased and two declined in December. Shimadzu led all companies, climbing 28%, while Techcomp fell 18%.
This month, nine European companies traded higher and four contracted. Scientific Digital Imaging soared 88% to lead all companies, while Sartorius fell 12%.
Scientific Digital Imaging announced on December 11 that fiscal half-year sales ending October 31 grew 13.2% to £3.7 million ($5.9 million) (see page 12). EPS were just above breakeven, compared to a loss of £0.01 ($0.01). The company projected revenue growth and improved margins for the second half. Shares jumped 80.0% in the following two days.
Bar Graph: IBO Stock Indexes’ Top Five Gainers and Losers of 2012
Illumina 82%
PerkinElmer 59%
Kewaunee Scientific 49%
Thermo Fisher Scientific 42%
Veeco Instruments 42%
Affymetrix -22%
Pacific Biosciences -39%
SDIX -42%
Transgenomic -53%
Pressure BioSciences -67%
Bar Graph: IBO Stock Indexes’ Top Five Gainers and
Losers, Three-Year Avg. Annual Growth
Cepheid 57%
FEI 46%
Zygo 44%
AMETEK 40%
Roper Industries 38%
QIAGEN -6%
SDIX -7%
Affymetrix -15%
Enzo Biochem -17%
Pacific Biosciences -30%
Bar Graph: IBO Stock Indexes’ Three-Year Avg.
Annual Growth
Lab Instrumentation 6%
DJAI 9%
S&P 500 9%
Lab Equip./Consumables 10%
NASDAQ 11%
Process/Metrology/Motion 18%
Diversified Instrumentation 19%
% Chg. from Dec 2009
Line Graph: IBO Instrument Industry Stock Index
Lab Instrument Stock Index S&P 500
Dec-10 565.27 301.52
Jan-11 657.02 308.36
Feb-11 661.02 317.14
Mar-11 661.90 317.88
Apr-11 703.32 326.93
May-11 721.22 322.52
Jun-11 712.55 316.63
Jul-11 676.63 309.83
Aug-11 635.47 292.24
Sep-11 577.75 271.27
Oct-11 602.13 300.49
Nov-11 569.85 298.97
Dec-11 565.27 301.52
Jan-12 628.98 314.66
Feb-12 634.89 327.43
Mar-12 644.38 337.69
Apr-12 637.19 335.16
May-12 593.81 314.16
Jun-12 605.89 326.59
Jul-12 608.43 330.70
Aug-12 622.96 337.24
Sep-12 645.40 345.41
Oct-12 635.37 338.57
Nov-12 652.47 339.54
Dec-12 662.53 341.94
Market Value 52 Week Price Change Change EPS EPS LTD/ FY R&D/
Company: Exchange (US $000s) Low High 12/31/2012 1 Month YTD P/E 12 Month FY Equity ROE Sales
Laboratory Instrumentation
Accelrys: o $510,384 6.43 9.59 $9.05 3% 35% NM -0.26 -0.44 4% 1% 24%
Affymetrix: o $223,178 2.96 5.50 $3.17 -5% -22% NM -0.19 -0.40 73% NM 24%
Becton, Dickinson $15,828,705 71.56 80.56 $78.19 2% 5% 14 5.59 5.59 127% 28% 6%
and Company: n
Bio-Rad Laboratories:n $3,009,157 91.52 118.00 $105.05 1% 9% 17 6.34 6.26 48% 10% 9%
Bruker: o $2,549,317 9.91 17.10 $15.24 4% 23% 25 0.62 0.55 60% 15% 11%
Cepheid: o $2,239,670 28.12 46.00 $33.86 4% -2% NM -0.41 0.04 3% 1% 21%
Fluidigm: o $322,605 12.28 17.23 $14.31 0% 9% NM -0.84 -1.81 1% NM 33%
Harvard Bioscience: o $126,135 3.45 4.70 $4.38 11% 13% 63 0.07 0.13 21% 4% 5%
Illumina: o $7,366,064 28.72 57.00 $55.59 4% 82% 79 0.70 0.62 74% 8% 19%
Luminex: o $703,660 15.58 25.79 $16.80 -2% -21% 62 0.27 0.34 4% 6% 18%
MOCON: o $81,835 14.04 20.40 $14.40 -2% -10% 31 0.46 0.98 24% 16% 6%
Pacific Biosciences: o $94,991 1.06 5.27 $1.70 1% -39% NM -1.72 -2.03 5% NM 225%
PerkinElmer: n $3,650,037 20.26 31.81 $31.74 0% 59% 1587 0.02 0.07 70% 0% 6%
Pressure BioSciences:o $2,175 0.15 0.97 $0.20 0% -67% NM -0.61 -0.77 -1% NM 98%
Sequenom: o $540,294 2.65 5.83 $4.71 -3% 6% NM -0.97 -0.75 194% NM 96%
Thermo Fisher $23,305,212 45.67 65.54 $63.78 0% 42% 22 2.96 3.46 64% 9% 3%
Scientific: n
Transgenomic: o $43,704 0.52 1.39 $0.61 -19% -53% 7 0.09 -0.04 16% NM 7%
Waters: n $7,705,851 72.98 94.47 $87.12 3% 18% 19 4.70 4.69 68% 35% 5%
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation
FEI Company: o $2,317,037 40.00 56.48 $55.47 1% 36% 20 2.79 2.51 7% 15% 9%
MKS Instruments: o $1,373,816 22.45 34.99 $25.78 6% -7% 21 1.24 2.45 4% 13% 7%
MTS Systems: o $823,793 36.85 55.00 $50.93 5% 25% 16 3.21 3.21 11% 24% 4%
Nanometrics: o $342,619 12.39 20.99 $14.42 0% -22% 45 0.32 1.22 6% 14% 10%
SDIX: o $21,974 0.87 2.13 $1.07 -1% -42% NM -0.09 -0.01 1% NM 15%
Veeco Instruments: o $1,155,094 21.12 38.39 $29.49 4% 42% 18 1.61 3.11 1% 17% 10%
Zygo: o $299,038 13.14 20.44 $15.70 6% -11% 8 2.08 2.30 4% 25% 10%
Lab Consumables/Equipment
Enzo Biochem: n $105,737 1.33 3.12 $2.70 -2% 21% NM -1.01 -1.01 0% NM 6%
Kewaunee Scientific: o $31,602 7.90 13.45 $12.15 -1% 49% 13 0.94 0.40 36% 3% 1%
Life Technologies: o $8,690,960 39.73 51.97 $49.03 -1% 26% 20 2.40 1.99 61% 8% 10%
Pall: n $6,996,005 49.97 65.82 $60.26 1% 5% 12 5.04 2.71 56% 21% 3%
QIAGEN: o $4,393,837 14.05 19.41 $18.15 -2% 31% 48 0.38 0.40 26% 4% 11%
Sigma-Aldrich: o $8,976,760 61.68 74.94 $73.58 1% 18% 20 3.70 3.72 24% 21% 3%
Techne: o $2,521,404 63.08 76.02 $68.34 -4% 0% 23 3.00 3.04 1% 17% 9%
Diversified Instrumentation
Agilent Technologies:n $14,451,820 35.32 46.28 $40.94 7% 17% 13 3.27 3.27 67% 22% 10%
AMETEK: n $9,097,125 27.93 38.21 $37.57 1% 34% 14 2.60 2.37 70% 19% 3%
Danaher: n $39,909,637 47.50 57.15 $55.90 4% 19% 17 3.28 3.11 46% 11% 6%
Illinois Tool Works: n $28,465,161 47.42 62.09 $60.81 -1% 30% 12 4.89 4.19 57% 21% 1%
Mettler-Toledo Int'l: $6,108,102 143.60 195.12 $193.30 3% 31% 22 8.72 8.21 89% 35% 5%
Roper Industries: n $11,120,910 86.68 113.42 $111.48 0% 28% 24 4.64 4.34 66% 13% 4%
Teledyne Technologies: $2,433,618 54.74 67.03 $65.07 3% 19% 16 4.15 6.84 71% 15% 5%
Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index 662.53 1.5% 17.2% 21 71% 11% 7%
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation 566.22 3.6% 15.7% 17 5% 16% 8%
Lab Consumables/Equipment Stock Index 655.82 0.2% 15.1% 18 41% 11% 7%
Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index 158.24 2.3% 20.7% 18 56% 16% 5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,104.14 0.6% 7.3%
S&P 500 1,426.19 0.7% 3.4%
NASDAQ Composite 3,019.51 0.3% 15.9%
Price
Region Market Value Market Value 12/31/12 Change Change EPS EPS LTD/ FY R&D/
Company (US $000s) (Local 000s) (Local) 1 Month YTD P/E 12 Month FY Equity ROE Sales
Pacific Shares
Hitachi High- $2,819,046 ¥244,486,246 ¥1,775 -3% 6% 14 ¥127.10 ¥103.71 11% 6% 4%
Technologies:
HORIBA: t $1,220,664 ¥105,864,020 ¥2,489 6% 7% 15 ¥161.47 ¥204.41 16% 9% 9%
JEOL: t $210,479 ¥18,254,088 ¥230 28% 19% NM -¥115.60 -¥115.60 102% N/A 5%
Precision $34,199 ¥2,965,950 ¥32,500 4% 12% NM -¥3,546 -¥2,072 43% NM 12%
System Science: os
Shimadzu: t $1,996,542 ¥173,153,260 ¥587 12% -10% 20 ¥29.29 ¥30.79 19% 5% 3%
Techcomp: hk $60,865 HKD 471,750.00 HKD 2.00 -18% -19% 53 $0.04 $0.04 7% 13% 1%
European Shares
Abcam: I $1,147,089 £706,575 £3.85 7% 6% 29 £0.13 £0.13 9% 17% 4%
Halma: l $2,815,244 £1,734,112 £4.59 5% 39% 19 £0.24 £0.23 58% 22% 5%
Oxford Instruments: $1,272,904 £784,073 £14.23 5% 50% 29 £0.49 £0.45 42% 20% 8%
Renishaw: l $2,446,090 £1,506,723 £20.70 17% 106% 22 £0.96 £0.96 29% 28% 14%
Scientific Digital l $5,792 £3,568 £0.19 88% 83% 16 £0.01 £0.00 0% 1% 10%
Imaging:
Spectris: l $39,352 £2,423,967 £20.49 7% 59% 19 £1.11 £1.07 64% 21% 7%
Alpha MOS: c $7,211 € 5,467 € 1.40 -9% -38% NM -€ 0.05 -€ 0.14 16% NM 15%
Analytik Jena: g $79,093 € 59,966 € 11.00 1% 3% 19 € 0.59 € 0.59 81% 7% 8%
Sartorius: g $1,612,335 € 1,222,416 € 65.30 -12% 112% 24 € 2.77 € 2.44 102% 11% 6%
Tecan: s $954,099 CHF 875,510 CHF 76.5 10% 20% 20 CHF 3.83 CHF 4.36 5% 18% 12%
Datacolor: s $68,185 CHF 62,568 CHF 410.0 -1% 4% 20 CHF 20.07 CHF 21.48 7% 0% 12%
Biotage: st $934 SEK 6,080 SEK 8.3 4% 60% 15 SEK 0.56 SEK 0.42 5% 6% 8%
Exiqon: no $53,774 DKK 304,211 DKK 8.3 -7% -14% NM -DKK 0.35 -DKK 0.71 1% NM 21%