Despite a variety of negative macroeconomic factors that are expected to continue well into 2012, demand for mass spectrometry (MS) is still expected to show high single-digit growth this year, which is only modestly lower growth than in 2011. The large installed base combined with continued improvements in performance are the major factors helping to drive such robust growth. Unlike 2010, in which there was major consolidation in the MS market, there was little in the way of merger and acquisition activity in 2011.

GC/MS sales have shown surprising strength, growing by more than 8% in 2011, and are expected to grow at least 7% in 2012. Although single quadrupole GC/MS, which accounted for the majority of the market in 2011, along with ion trap GC/MS, are expected to experience more moderate annual sales growth, triple quadrupole GC/MS has rapidly become a major segment of the GC/MS market. As triple quadrupole GC/MS gains broader acceptance, it will show strong double-digit sales growth, helping to drive sales in the overall GC/MS market. Time-of-flight (TOF) GC/MS sales growth is also beginning to accelerate due largely to Agilent’s introduction of the first dedicated Q-TOF GC/MS and its expected introduction of a TOF GC/MS in the near future. The entry of the dominant leader in GC/MS into the TOF segment clearly validates the technique, which should now experience rapid growth. As a result, TOF GC/MS is becoming a more significant technique in the GC/MS market.

The pace of sales growth for FT-MS declined, growing in high single digits in 2011, due to the discontinuation of the former Varian product line under Agilent, which now leaves only two major competitors in the market. Both Bruker and Thermo Fisher Scientific have continued to develop their FT-MS systems. Thermo now offers a broad range of Orbitrap models, which compete against many types of MS systems, from high-end Q-TOFs to routine benchtop LC-TOFs. Strong innovation by both vendors will help return FT-MS sales to strong double-digit growth.

Technological improvements have been rolling along particularly well in market segments such as Q-TOF and triple quadrupole LC/MS. The main focus of recent design improvements has been in the area of ion optics, with variations of ion mobility technology being developed by nearly all major vendors. These improvements have led to yet another order-of-magnitude increase in sensitivity and other performance factors. Such improvements will help drive high single-digit sales growth in the tandem LC/MS and TOF-LC/MS markets.

Portable MS has begun to develop into a major segment of the MS market in recent years due to technological advances that allow miniaturization and ruggedization, combined with strong growth in demand for security-related instrumentation. A large portion of demand for portable MS is reliant upon various levels of government spending, including the military. Despite major cutbacks in government spending, which has impacted sales growth, the portable MS market is still expected to show double-digit growth in 2012.

Demand for MALDI-TOF systems surged in 2010 and into early 2011 due in part to new instrument introductions. Most recent introductions have been focused on TOF/TOF and linear configurations, which should help to drive high single-digit or double-digit sales growth in 2012. However, growth in demand for reflectron MALDI-TOF instruments will be more lackluster. The result should be 6%–7% sales growth for the MALDI-TOF market in 2012.

 Pie Chart: 2011 Mass Spectrometry Suppliers’ Market Shares

 Danaher          23%

 Agilent          21%

 Thermo           18%

 Waters           14%

 Bruker            9%

 Other            15%

 Mass Spectrometry Market Leaders

 Tandem LC/MS         Danaher, Thermo Fisher Scientific

 GC/MS                Agilent, Thermo Fisher Scientific

 TOF-LC/MS            Waters, Danaher

 MALDI-TOF            Bruker, Danaher 

 Single Quad. LC/MS   Agilent, Waters

 Magnetic Sector      Thermo Fisher Scientific, JEOL

 FT-MS                Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bruker

 Portable MS          Inficon, Bruker

 Mass Spectrometry 2011–2012

                 2011 Market Share            2012 Growth Rate

 Tandem LC/MS           33.3%                        8.0%

 GC/MS                  19.4%                        7.6%

 TOF-LC/MS              16.4%                        9.6%

 MALDI-TOF              10.7%                        6.3%

 FT-MS                   8.1%                       10.5%

 Single Quad. LC/MS      6.2%                        7.3%

 Magnetic Sector         3.6%                        2.9%

 Portable MS             2.4%                       10.4%

 Total                 100.0%                        8.1%

 Bar Graph: 2010–2013 Total Mass Spectrometry Market

                 2010       2011       2012       2013

 $ Millions     2,612      2,843      3,072      3,320

 Pie Chart: 2011 Mass Spectrometry Market by Product Type

 Initial Systems        70%

 Service                19%

 Aftermarket            11%