By 2020, spending on medicines will total $1.4 trillion, a 29%–32% increase in constant dollars from 2015, but down from 35% growth over the previous five-year period. The volume of medicines used from 2015 to 2020 will increase 24%. Original brands, nonoriginal brands, unbranded and OTC medicines will account for 52%, 21%, 14% and 13% of spending in 2020, respectively. By disease areas, the largest categories by spending will be noncommunicable, communicable, oncology and diabetes at 37%, 15%, 11%, and 10%, respectively. The percentage of spending on specialty medicines will increase from 26% in 2015 to 28% in 2020. In developed markets, specialty medicines will account for 36% of medicine spending by 2020. By specialty therapy area, oncology will be the largest, with sales of $100–$120 billion by 2020. The fastest growing specialty therapy areas will be autoimmune and immunosuppressants, each with combined annual growth rates of 11%–14% from 2016 to 2020. For traditional medicines, the top 3 categories for 8 developed markets will be diabetes, pain and cardiovascular by 2020. For 10 pharmerging markets, the top three categories will be traditional medicines, cardiovascular, and antibodies and vaccines.

Source: IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics