EvaluatePharma predicts some shuffling of the list of the world’s top drug firms through 2016. The top spot, which Pfizer has held for nine years, will be usurped by Sanofi next year. Sanofi’s projected five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% should allow it to maintain first place through 2016. Novartis is expected to remain the second-largest drug firm for the next five years with a CAGR of 2%. Pfizer’s blockbuster Lipitor goes off patent this month, which will result in sales falling an average of 1% over the next five years and its demotion to the third position through at least 2016, when sales should pick back up. With a CAGR of 9%, Novo Nordisk’s drug sales are expected to grow the fastest among the top 15 firms over the next five years. Teva, which will be the sole debut among next year’s top ten firms, is expected to post growth of 7% on average. GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and Johnson & Johnson are all expected to grow an average of 5% through 2016. Sales for AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly are both predicted to drop an average of 4%.

Source: EvaluatePharma