IMS Health forecasts the global pharmaceutical market to grow 2.5%–3.5% in 2009, excluding currency effects, to more than $750 billion. This is down from the previous estimate of 4.5%–5.5% growth (see IBO 10/31/08). Compound annual growth for 2009 through 2013 is estimated to be 3%–6%. IMS observed that consumers are less likely to start new therapies and are showing a preference for generics. US drug sales are now estimated to decline 1%–2% in 2009 to $280–$290 billion. This would be the first decline in the 50-year history of the IMS forecasts. Five-year compound annual sales for the US are expected to be flat. IMS forecasts average sales growth of between 1% and 4% this year for Japan, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, Spain and Canada. In contrast, pharmaceutical sales in seven emerging nations are estimated to grow 13%–16% on average in 2009. Between 50 and 60 original drugs will be introduced in 2009 and 2010, including 10 drugs that could be blockbusters. However, most of the new drugs will be for niche markets.

Source: Wall Street Journal

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