In EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2017 report, the long-term outlook for the pharmaceutical industry indicates that the sector is on an upswing, despite the uncertainties brought about by recent political and economic challenges around the world; however, the report also describes the first decrease in long-term sales forecasts in 10 years, citing pressures on drug pricing as a key factor. The report forecasts prescription drug sales to grow at a CAGR of 6.5% to reach $1.06 trillion by 2022 from the period of 2016 to 2022, with new cancer immunotherapies and higher-risk assets contributing to much of the growth. Notably, orphan drugs will account for 32% of this spike in sales. Global pharmaceutical R&D spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4% to $181 billion in 2022. On average, R&D expenditures on New Molecular Entities (NMEs) was $4 billion over the past decade. As of May 2017, 17 NMEs have already been approved.

By 2022, biologics are forecast to account for 52% of the Top 100 drug sales, with Roche leading the market. Roche also leads the forecast for having the greatest pharmaceutical R&D expenditures by 2022. Oncology remains the largest sales generator and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 12.7% between 2016 and 2022. Roche, Celgene and Johnson & Johnson are the top respective companies in this sector. By drug type, in 2017, biotechnology accounts for 26% of sales of worldwide prescription drug and OTC sales, with conventional/unclassified technology accounting for the remainder—these figures are set to change to 30% and 70%, respectively, by 2022.

The top three companies in prescription drug sales are forecast to be Novartis with $49.8 billion in sales by 2022, Pfizer at $49.7 billion and Roche with $49.6 billion.

Source: EvaluatePharma