Although the US contributes 33% of the publications covered by the Nature Index and releases as many papers as China, Germany and the UK combined, the total number of US publications, as well as the country’s global share and its contribution to authorship of papers, has been declining since 2012. In China, the number of publications and author contributions have been steadily increasing since 2012, when the US’ global share began to decrease, making China a top contender for leading scientific paper authorship in the Index by 2027.

Virtually all 50 states have contributed to the decline in paper authorship, with waning contributions from California, Massachusetts, New York and Maryland making the biggest impact in Nature’s weighted fractional count Index methodology since 2012; simultaneously, however, these states have also increased their contributions by a few points. R&D expenditures as a share of US GDP has been on the decline since the 1960s and without an increase in funds, US science research will continue to falter.

Source: Nature Index