China’s Ambitious 12th Five-Year Plan

This spring, the National People’s Congress approved China’s 12th Five-Year Plan for 2011 to 2015. China’s five-year plans set the country’s economic and social priorities during the period. China is one of the fastest-growing markets for analytical and life science instrumentation. The goals of the Plan emphasize many of the same sectors that have fueled demand for analytical instrumentation, including environmental monitoring and R&D. In addition, it lays out ambitious new goals for the domestic clean energy and biotechnology industries.

The 12th Five-Year Plan is part of an effort by China to shift its economic focus from exports to domestic demand. As a result, the Plan focuses on sustainable growth, industrial maturity and improvements in the welfare of the citizenry. Among the broad economic objectives of the Plan is to grow GDP by an average of 7% annually, increase average household income 7% and grow domestic consumption from 35% of GDP in 2009 to 40% by 2015. However, only one of these targets is “binding.” According to a report by the US-China Economic Security Review Commission, binding targets, of which the increase in household income is one, are those that must be met by government officials. In contrast, nonbinding targets depend on government support and the free market.

As China’s environmental infrastructure and regulations continue to grow, greater testing of air, water and soil will be required. A paper by the Chinese Association of Environmental Protection Industry estimates that urban wastewater treatment will increase by 90 million tons per day under the Plan. Wastewater treatment capacity at existing plants will be extended by 50 million tons of water per day. Treatment of sludge will grow by 47,000 tons daily. Reduction of carbon oxygen demand through the treatment of industrial wastewater will total 1.5 million tons (see IBO 6/15/11). A July report in People’s Daily cited an official with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, who said that China plans to invest $77.4–$92.8 billion over the five-year period in urban water facilities, with 2,000 water treatment plants to be updated and 2,358 new water treatment plants to be built.

Also impacting water, soil and air testing will be the country’s effort to reduce heavy metal pollution. According to china-briefing.com, China aims to reduce heavy metal waste 15% by 2015, compared with 2007 levels. The goal applies to 14 regions and five industries (non-ferrous metal mining, non-ferrous smelting, lead batteries, leather production and chemical production).

Specific air pollution targets in the 12 Five-Year Plan are an 8% reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions and a 10% reduction each in ammonia nitrogen and nitrogen oxide emissions—all of which are binding targets. China’s goals for air pollution also relate to greenhouse gases (GHGs). The country plans to reduce carbon intensity (carbon emitted per GDP unit) by 17%.

Limiting GHGs will also require a greater reliance on clean energy. R&D to develop, improve and utilize clean energy sources can be expected to utilize analytical instrumentation. Under the Plan, China’s goal is to increase its share of non-fossil fuels as a percentage of primary energy consumption to 11.4%, a binding target, up from 8.3% in 2010. Clean energy sources will include nuclear, hydropower, solar and wind.

Scientific innovation is another major theme of the 12th Five-Year Plan and, like environmental policy, plays a larger role than in the previous five-year plans. The R&D goals include an increase in R&D as a percentage of GDP from 1.75% last year to 2.20% by 2015. R&D personnel per 10,000 workers is to grow from 33 man-years to 43 man-years. China also aims to increase its international ranking of international scientific publications from eighth to fifth.

R&D is also integral to the development of seven strategic emerging industries identified by the 12th Five-Year Plan. The industries are: energy-saving and environmental protection, new information technology, biotechnology, high-end equipment manufacturing, clean energy, new materials and new energy vehicles. The Plan aims to increase these industries’ share of GDP from 3% currently to 8% by 2015 and to 15% by 2020. The Plan also aims for the industries to grow 24.1% annually from 2011 to 2015. China Daily reported in June that China intends to spend $308.5 billion on biotech from 2011 to 2015. Spending on “innovative medicines” during the period is expected to reach CNY 20 billion ($3.1 billion = CNY 6.54 = $1).

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