IBO Stock Indexes Come Tumbling Down
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell 2.2%, 2.1% and 0.6% in July. Wall Street’s anxiety was elevated due to political gridlock over how to raise the debt ceiling and the possibilities of a US Treasury credit downgrade. Economic data did little to mitigate the downward pressure as durable goods orders and quarterly GDP growth were below expectations. Second-quarter US GDP growth was 1.3%, compared with analysts’ forecast of 1.9%. Even corporate earnings, which started off on a strong note in early July, showed signs of an economic slowdown, especially from industrial companies. For the year, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up 4.9%, 2.8% and 3.9%, respectively.
This month, all four IBO Stock Indexes significantly underperformed the major US equity indexes. The Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation, Lab Consumables/Equipment, Diversified Instrumentation and Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Indexes slumped 12.4%, 10.7%, 10.2% and 5.0%, respectively.
Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index
In July, the Laboratory Instrumentation Index declined 5.0% to close at 676.63, with 15 companies in negative territory and six improving. Helicos BioSciences recorded the largest increase, climbing 111%, while Affymetrix slumped 29%. The Index has maintained a profit of 2.5% for the year. Fourteen companies have positive returns, and seven are trading lower. Transgenomic leads the Index, having gained 120%, while Pressure BioSciences has fallen 46%.
Initial earnings reports from Affymetrix and Waters spurred fears of weaker demand and a slower-than-expected second half of the year. Affymetrix lowered its second-quarter revenue guidance on July 6 to $64–$65 million, roughly $10 million below analysts’ expectations (see IBO 7/15/11). Shares tumbled 17.6% the following day. On July 27, the company reported a slightly narrower-than-expected EPS loss (see page 12) due to lower operating expenses. Shares dropped 3.7% the next day. Waters missed second-quarter EPS and revenue estimates on July 26 (see page 12) and projected third-quarter EPS of $1.10–$1.15, which was below analysts’ estimates of $1.16. The company maintained its full-year EPS outlook of $4.80–$4.90. Shares contracted 8.1%. Illumina, Thermo Fisher Scientific and PerkinElmer fell 3.7%, 3.9% and 2.7% on the same day, respectively.
While Illumina and Thermo reversed the negative second-quarter earnings trend, selling continued. On July 26, Illumina reported better-than-expected EPS (see page 12) and raised its full-year EPS growth forecast from over 30% to 33%–36%. However, the firm’s full-year EPS outlook of $1.44–$1.50 fell short of analysts’ consensus of $1.50 a share. Given the company’s high valuation and declining gross margins, shares tumbled 17.8% the next day. Thermo reported second-quarter EPS ahead of expectations on July 27 (see page 12) and raised its 2011 EPS outlook by 1% to $4.08–$4.18 for growth of 18%–21%. However, shares fell 2.5%.
Cepheid was the only Index company that was rewarded for its strong earnings report and outlook. The company beat second-quarter EPS estimates on July 21 (see page 12) and raised its full-year EPS outlook to $0.08–$0.11 from a loss of $0.01 to a profit of $0.04. Shares soared 28.9% the next day.
Goldman and Lazard Capital each downgraded Cepheid on July 6 and July 7, respectively, to “Neutral” from “Buy.” Goldman cited its strong year-to-date stock performance and listed a six-month price target of $36 per share. On June 24, Goldman lowered its 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates for Illumina by $0.04 and $0.06 to $2.04 and $2.64, respectively. The company also reduced its price target by $1 to $83 a share. Mizuho upgraded Illumina on July 29 from “Neutral” to “Outperform.”
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index
The Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation Stock Index contracted 12.4% to 490.78 this month. Five companies dropped in value, while SDIX advanced 7%. Veeco Instruments sustained the largest decline for both the month and year, falling 18% and 7%, respectively. For the year, the Index is up 9.0%. Four firms are trading higher, led by Nanometrics, which has risen 32%, and two have negative returns.
Nanometrics, Veeco and SDIX all reported on July 28. Nanometrics reported better-than-expected second-quarter EPS (see page 12) and projected third-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.34. Veeco narrowly missed second-quarter EPS estimates (see page 12) but raised its 2010 EPS outlook from over $5.00 to more than $5.25 a share. Third-quarter EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.00–$1.40. SDIX reported a wider EPS loss than a year ago (see page 12) due to increased marketing, sales and R&D investments. Nanometrics, Veeco and SDIX declined 1.7%, 2.8% and 4.9% the next day, respectively.
Credit Suisse initiated coverage of Veeco on July 21 with a “Neutral” rating. The following day, ahead of earnings, UBS lowered its price target on the firm to $51 from $55 due to shipment delays and stricter credit financing in China.
Lab Consumables/Equipment Stock Index
The Laboratory Consumables/Equipment Stock Index fell 10.7% in July to 598.15. Six companies declined, while Kewaunee Scientific sustained a marginal gain. Life Technologies experienced the largest price decline, falling 14%. Year to date, the Index has lost 4.5% in value, with four companies trading lower, two improving and Pall unchanged. Kewaunee Scientific has shown the largest decline, tumbling 27%. Techne is up 15%.
QIAGEN reported on July 25 second-quarter EPS just below expectations (see page 12) and lowered its full-year EPS and revenue growth outlook. The company anticipates EPS to grow 3% to $0.96, including dilution of $0.03 per share from recent acquisitions, compared with a previous EPS growth forecast of 7%–13%. Shares slipped 1.5% the next day. Sigma-Aldrich reported on July 26 second-quarter EPS results ahead of expectations (see page 12) and reaffirmed its full-year EPS forecast of $3.60–$3.75. Shares declined 4.8%. On July 28, Life Technologies fell 5.3% after it missed analysts’ second-quarter EPS and revenue estimates and lowered its full-year EPS outlook by 3% to $3.70–$3.80.
Goldman lowered its 2011 EPS target for Life Technologies on July 24 by $0.01 to $3.87. Goldman also reduced 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates by $0.02 and $0.06 to $4.27 and $4.67, respectively. On July 25, Wedbush downgraded QIAGEN to “Neutral” from “Outperform” and lowered its price target from $24 to $19 a share.
Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index
The Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index fell 10.2% to 135.50 in July. Six firms dropped in value, led by Agilent Technologies, which lapsed 18%. Teledyne Technologies rose 8%. For the year, the Index has gained 1.1%. Six companies have advanced, and Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has declined 7%. Teledyne leads the Index, having climbed 23%.
Danaher raised its 2011 EPS guidance on July 21 by 3% to $2.75–$2.82. The company projected third-quarter EPS of $0.66–$0.72. However, both third-quarter and full-year estimates were at the lower range of analysts’ forecasts of $2.82 and $0.72, respectively. Shares slipped 1.3%. On July 25, Roper raised its 2011 EPS guidance by 5% to $4.20–$4.30 and forecast third-quarter EPS of $1.05–$1.09. Shares climbed 3.2%. On July 26, AMETEK increased its full-year guidance by 4% to $2.30–$2.34 and projected third-quarter EPS of $0.58, $0.01 above estimates. Shares slid 3.3% the next day. Teledyne boosted its 2011 EPS outlook on July 28 by 10% to $3.57–$3.63 and projected third-quarter EPS of $0.83–$0.87, compared with consensus of $0.82. Shares climbed 6.2%.
Mettler-Toledo posted better-than-expected EPS on July 28 (see page 12). It raised full-year EPS guidance by $0.05 to $7.95–$8.05 and predicted third-quarter EPS of $1.87–$1.93. Shares traded marginally higher. ITW missed quarterly EPS and revenue estimates on July 26, leading shares down 8.2%. It projected third-quarter EPS of $0.95–$1.03 and full-year EPS of $4.05–$4.21, which includes a tax settlement of $0.33 a share. On July 19, UBS initiated coverage of AMETEK with a “Neutral” rating and a $47 price target.
International
This month, four Pacific Region companies traded lower and Techcomp improved 5%. JEOL lost the most value for both the month and year, declining 8% and 14%, respectively. Year to date, three companies are up, led by Shimadzu, which has risen 13%, while two companies have declined.
On July 22, HORIBA increased its six-month revenue forecast ending July 30 by 2% to ¥24,500 million ($299 million) and raised its EPS outlook by 48% to ¥87.49 ($1.07). Shares slipped 1.1%. Hitachi High-Technologies reported on July 27 a decline in fiscal first-quarter EPS of 42% to ¥14.79 ($0.18) (see page 12). The company increased its six-month EPS outlook ending September 30 by 39% to ¥36.35 ($0.45). Shares declined 2.3%.
In July, 12 European companies declined and two rallied. Sartorius improved the most, climbing 17%, but Scientific Digital Imaging lost 10%. For the year, ten companies have gained ground, three companies have negative returns and Biotage is unchanged. Oxford Instruments leads all European companies, having risen 40%. Tecan is down 15%.
Spectris announced on July 15 preliminary six-month revenue growth of 25% to £506 million ($823 million), including 5% growth from acquisitions and a 1% loss from currency. Adjusted operating profit is expected to jump 60% to roughly £80 million ($130 million). Shares slipped 2.0%. Sartorius reported on July 25 EPS growth of 50.6% to €1.41 ($2.04) and 12.2% revenue growth for the first half. It raised its 2011 revenue growth outlook by 200 basis points to 8%–10% in constant currency and increased its adjusted operating margin forecast by 50 basis points to 17%–18%. Shares jumped 4.8%. On July 27, Scientific Digital Imaging reported full-year EPS loss ending April 30 of a £0.01 ($0.02), compared with a profit of £0.01 ($0.02) a year ago. Shares fell 9.7%. Renishaw reported on July 28 adjusted EPS growth for the fiscal year ending June 30 of 178% to £0.88 ($1.43) and 59% revenue growth to £288.7 million ($458.3 million), including 5% growth from acquisitions. Shares fell 3.8%.
Line Graph: IBO Instrument Industry Stock Index
Lab Instrument Stock Index S&P 500
Jul-09 522.15 236.75
Aug-09 528.47 244.70
Sep-09 543.19 253.44
Oct-09 535.42 248.43
Nov-09 548.41 262.68
Dec-09 565.94 267.35
Jan-10 546.93 257.47
Feb-10 566.22 264.81
Mar-10 585.87 280.38
Apr-10 596.47 284.51
May-10 557.61 261.19
Jun-10 531.11 247.12
Jul-10 513.20 264.12
Aug-10 499.94 251.58
Sep-10 556.95 273.61
Oct-10 579.40 283.69
Nov-10 589.00 283.04
Dec-10 660.07 301.53
Jan-11 657.02 308.36
Feb-11 661.02 317.14
Mar-11 661.90 317.88
Apr-11 703.32 326.93
May-11 721.22 322.52
Jun-11 712.55 316.63
Jul-11 676.63 309.83
2011 2010
Cos. Date Rept. FQ Adj.EPS Consensus Vs.Est. Grw. Adj.Eps
Laboratory Instrumentation
AFFX 27-Jul 2Q ($0.03) ($0.04) $0.01 63% ($0.08)
CPHD 21-Jul 2Q $0.03 ($0.02) $0.05 NA ($0.03)
ILMN 26-Jul 2Q $0.38 $0.37 $0.01 46% $0.26
TMO 27-Jul 2Q $0.99 $0.98 $0.01 18% $0.84
WAT 26-Jul 2Q $1.08 $1.14 -$0.06 16% $0.93
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation
NANO 28-Jul 2Q $0.47 $0.46 $0.01 -7% $0.51
SDIX 28-Jul 2Q ($0.03) NA NA -200% ($0.01)
VECO 28-Jul 2Q $1.34 $1.36 -$0.02 33% $1.01
Lab Consumables/Equipment
LIFE 28-Jul 2Q $0.89 $0.95 -$0.06 -2% $0.91
QGEN 25-Jul 2Q $0.21 $0.22 -$0.01 40% $0.15
SIAL 26-Jul 2Q $0.93 $0.92 $0.01 15% $0.81
Diversified Instrumentation
AME 26-Jul 2Q $0.59 $0.56 $0.03 40% $0.42
DHR 21-Jul 2Q $0.69 $0.67 $0.02 23% $0.56
ITW 26-Jul 2Q $0.96 $1.02 -$0.06 16% $0.83
MTD 28-Jul 2Q $1.90 $1.86 $0.04 23% $1.55
ROP 25-Jul 2Q $1.08 $0.99 $0.09 46% $0.74
TDY 28-Jul 2Q $1.04 $0.77 $0.27 33% $0.78
Market Value 52 Week Price Change Change EPS EPS LTD/ FY R&D/
Company: Exchange (US $000s) Low High 7/28/2011 1Month YTD P/E 12Month FY Equity ROE Sales
Laboratory Instrumentation
Accelrys: o $410,668 5.96 8.95 $7.27 2% -12% N/A -0.45 -0.44 4% N/A 28%
Affymetrix: o $392,698 3.88 8.16 $5.65 -29% 12% 283 0.02 -0.15 38% N/A 22%
Becton, Dickinson and Company: n $18,851,296 66.87 89.75 $83.61 -3% -1% 16 5.19 4.94 72% 24% 6%
Bio-Rad Laboratories: n $3,094,401 85.88 126.98 $109.00 -9% 5% 17 6.51 6.59 54% 12% 9%
Bruker: o $2,870,574 11.82 21.65 $17.22 -15% 4% 31 0.55 0.58 32% 23% 11%
Caliper Life Sciences: o $424,224 3.10 8.68 $8.15 0% 29% 116 0.07 0.08 13% 5% 15%
Cepheid: o $2,506,886 14.24 40.98 $37.76 9% 66% 944 0.04 -0.10 6% N/A 20%
Fluidigm: o $182,388 13.13 20.20 $16.96 1% 21% N/A -7.52 -8.94 11% N/A 39%
Harvard Bioscience: o $149,255 3.22 6.26 $5.06 -5% 24% 8 0.64 0.65 24% 21% 4%
Helicos BioSciences: o $12,737 0.06 0.85 $0.15 111% 25% 0 0.87 0.87 69% 10% 20%
Illumina: o $8,853,224 42.60 79.40 $62.45 -17% -1% 72 0.87 0.87 69% 10% 20%
Luminex: o $860,907 14.25 21.89 $20.35 -3% 11% 113 0.18 0.12 5% 2% 17%
MOCON: o $92,642 10.43 17.67 $16.89 10% 31% 19 0.91 0.84 1% 16% 7%
Pacific Biosciences: o $580,845 10.27 17.47 $11.01 -6% -31% N/A -2.73 -14.10 2% N/A N/A
PerkinElmer: n $2,816,324 18.91 28.75 $24.46 -9% -5% 20 1.20 1.15 46% 7% 6%
Pressure BioSciences: o $2,128 0.68 2.29 $0.75 -26% -46% N/A -1.20 -1.35 1% N/A 92%
Sequenom: o $698,439 5.47 8.71 $7.06 -6% -12% N/A -1.55 -1.69 3% N/A 92%
Thermo Fisher Scientific: n $23,453,127 41.74 65.86 $60.09 -7% 9% 23 2.63 2.53 42% 7% 3%
Transgenomic: o $71,475 0.30 1.85 $1.45 -17% 120% N/A -0.09 -0.04 313% N/A 11%
Waters: n $8,197,500 60.01 100.00 $87.89 -8% 13% 20 4.46 4.06 47% 36% 5%
X-Rite: o $414,016 3.19 5.08 $4.86 -2% 6% N/A -0.12 0.04 89% 2% 11%
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation
FEI Company: o $1,391,017 16.51 41.56 $33.04 -13% 25% 19 1.77 1.34 19% 8% 10%
MTS Systems: o $624,176 26.17 48.72 $39.41 -6% 5% 18 2.14 1.14 10% 11% 4%
Nanometrics: o $395,935 8.69 21.56 $16.89 -11% 32% 7 2.58 2.43 10% 33% 10%
SDIX: o $43,899 1.52 3.13 $2.15 7% 22% N/A -0.08 -0.05 1% N/A 11%
Veeco Instruments: o $1,711,050 30.25 57.67 $39.79 -18% -7% 7 5.93 6.13 0% 34% 1%
Zygo: o $219,648 6.97 16.51 $12.00 -9% -2% 13 0.96 -0.37 4% N/A 14%
Lab Consumables/Equipment
Enzo Biochem: n $147,756 3.33 5.83 $3.84 -10% -27% N/A -0.38 -0.59 0% N/A 10%
Kewaunee Scientific: o $25,658 9.56 14.25 $9.90 0% -27% 14 0.72 0.72 30% 6% 0%
Life Technologies: o $8,353,650 41.10 57.25 $45.03 -14% -19% 23 1.95 1.99 68% 9% 10%
Pall: n $5,886,286 33.72 59.50 $49.58 -12% 0% 21 2.31 2.03 65% 20% 3%
QIAGEN: o $4,082,269 16.58 22.20 $16.94 -11% -13% 31 0.55 0.60 40% 6% 12%
Sigma-Aldrich: o $8,320,400 51.44 76.16 $67.10 -9% 1% 20 3.39 3.12 23% 19% 3%
Techne: o $2,818,933 57.00 86.43 $75.79 -9% 15% 26 2.95 2.94 N/A 22% 9%
Diversified Instrumentation
Agilent Technologies: n $14,966,800 26.68 55.33 $42.16 -18% 2% 17 2.52 1.94 78% 20% 11%
AMETEK: n $6,894,138 27.75 47.00 $42.50 -5% 8% 20 2.12 1.76 79% 16% 2%
Danaher: n $34,111,757 35.24 56.09 $49.11 -7% 4% 15 3.20 2.64 64% 13% 5%
Illinois Tool Works: n $24,992,678 40.33 59.27 $49.80 -12% -7% 13 3.79 3.03 39% 16% 1%
Mettler-Toledo Int'l: n $5,110,880 107.90 193.56 $154.81 -8% 2% 21 7.44 6.80 112% 30% 5%
Roper Industries: n $8,033,372 56.96 88.76 $81.63 -2% 7% 21 3.97 3.34 58% 12% 4%
Teledyne Technologies: n $2,022,779 35.34 55.00 $54.23 8% 23% 8 6.75 3.27 45% 15% 3%
Laboratory Instrumentation Stock Index 676.63 -5.0% 2.5% 21 47% 10% 7%
Process/Metrology/Motion Instrumentation 490.78 -12.4% 9.0% 11 9% 21% 5%
Lab Consumables/Equipment Stock Index 598.15 -10.7% -4.5% 22 50% 12% 7%
Diversified Instrumentation Stock Index 135.50 -10.2% 1.1% 16 60% 15% 4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,143.24 -2.2% 4.9%
S&P 500 1,292.28 -2.1% 2.8%
NASDAQ Composite 2,756.38 -0.6% 3.9%
Price
Region Market Value Market Value 7/28/2011 Change Change EPS EPS LTD/ FY R&D/
Company (US $000s) (Local 000s) (Local) 1Month YTD P/E 12Month FY Equity ROE Sales
Pacific Shares
Hitachi High-Technologies: t $2,958,242 ¥229,419,385 ¥1668 -5% -12% 14 ¥118.20 ¥129.07 11% 7% 3%
HORIBA: t $1,399,249 ¥108,515,363 ¥2566 -1% 11% 12 ¥205.36 ¥187.11 17% 9% 8%
JEOL: t $251,751 ¥19,523,938 ¥246 -8% -14% 70 ¥3.51 ¥3.51 93% 1% 5%
Shimadzu: t $2,726,691 ¥211,461,965 ¥715 -3% 13% 34 ¥20.77 ¥20.77 26% 6% 4%
Techcomp: si $81,994 SGD98,813 SGD0.43 5% 1% 8 $0.04 $0.04 8% 18% 0%
European Shares
Halma: l $2,485,544 £1,524,879 £4.05 -2% 13% 21 £0.19 £0.19 46% 20% 5%
Oxford Instruments: l $814,424 £499,649 £9.86 7% 40% 15 £0.64 £0.64 28% 34% 7%
Renishaw: l $1,996,794 £1,225,031 £16.83 -4% 37% 19 £0.90 £0.90 35% 30% 10%
Scientific Digital Imaging: l $3,949 £2,423 £0.14 -10% -10% 12 £0.01 £0.01 0% N/A 5%
Spectris: l $29,634 £1,818,060 £15.70 -1% 20% 19 £0.82 £0.82 36% 19% 8%
Alpha MOS: c $10,791 € 7,567 € 2.89 -5% 9% N/A -€ 0.14 -€ 0.14 11% N/A N/A
Analytik Jena: g $64,074 € 44,933 € 8.65 -7% 3% 87 € 0.10 € 0.34 53% 5% 10%
Biohit: h $46,766 € 32,795 € 2.37 -1% 13% N/A -€ 0.01 € 0.00 69% 2% 6%
CyBio: g $7,322 € 5,135 € 1.02 -3% 1% 7 € 0.14 € 0.14 2% 13% 6%
Sartorius: g $787,105 € 551,967 € 37.00 17% 31% 14 € 2.58 € 2.29 88% 12% 6%
Tecan: s $948,554 CHF 759,508 CHF66.6 -5% -15% 15 CHF4.43 CHF4.43 5% 7% 10%
Datacolor: s $83,523 CHF 66,877CHF420.0 -2% -3% 14 CHF31.05 CHF29.26 5% 0% 9%
Biotage: st $932 SEK 5,929 SEK6.7 -1% 0% N/A -SEK4.93 -SEK4.91 6% N/A 9%
Exiqon: no $82,317 DKK 430,025 DKK12.9 -2% 36% N/A -DKK1.06 -DKK1.28 4% N/A 32%