“The coldest winter I ever saw was the summer I spent in San Francisco.” Popularly attributed to Mark Twain, this witticism could well describe the Bay Area weather during Semicon West/Intersolar 2011, which was about ten degrees cooler than average for the season. Fortunately, the atmosphere inside Moscone Center, which hosted the joint semiconductor and solar energy show from July 12 to 14, was much warmer, both literally and metaphorically. The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Institute (SEMI) is the organizing body behind Semicon West. For the past few years, it has been held in association with Intersolar North America, a solar energy trade show. Preliminary attendance figures indicate that the combined show brought in 30,700 attendees, a 4% increase over last year.

In addition to hosting, SEMI uses the trade show as an opportunity to release its midyear consensus forecast for semiconductor-related capital equipment expenditure. The final figures for 2010 exceeded last year’s aggressive forecast, totaling $39.5 billion. Compared with the depressed state of the industry and the global economy in 2009, this figure represents growth of an astonishing 148% for 2010. The forecast for 2011 is somewhat more modest, but still calls for growth of 12%, with total spending equal to $44.3 billion, an all-time high for the industry. For 2012, the estimated market for semiconductor equipment is forecast to decline 1.2%, though this still represents a very high level of investment. The attitudes exhibited at the show generally reflected this forecast: a positive growth outlook for this year and the expectation of a flat but solid market in the following year.

By region, semiconductor equipment sales in Europe and North America are expected to achieve the greatest growth in 2011, with both gaining more than 50%. Looking to 2012, sales in Europe are forecast to grow more than 8%, while the North American market for semiconductor equipment is slated to decline about 10%. Other regional markets should remain relatively flat. For both years, the three largest markets will be Taiwan, North America and Korea.

Sales of wafer processing equipment totaled $29.54 billion in 2010 and are expected to soar 18.8% this year to reach $35.10 billion. Growth is forecast to subside by 2% in 2012 to total $34.39 billion.

Of the two shows, Intersolar North America continues to be the more vibrant. The solar vendors have outgrown their former place in Moscone West, and a number of solar booths have spread into the main halls. While solar technology is on the upswing, one area lacking at the show was analytical instrumentation. Although never a strong focus of either show, analytical instrumentation is becoming more and more of an afterthought, as vendors have continued to downsize their booths or disappear altogether. Many of the vendors that did attend were content to provide information only, with no instruments in their booths. A lunch-hour visit to the EDAX (AMETEK) booth found no personnel in evidence.

The strongest presence in analytical instrumentation was provided by optical microscopy vendors. All the major vendors were present. Among the few product introductions at the show was the automated 3DIR Metrology and Defect Review system from Olympus, which uses infrared confocal microscopy to produce and analyze three-dimensional images of bonded wafers for overlay defects and other parameters. Other instrument vendors that continued to maintain a significant presence at the combined shows included analytical process control suppliers, and larger broad-based companies like HORIBA, Thermo Fisher Scientific and PerkinElmer.

 Bar Graph: Semiconductor Capital Equipment Sales (Billions)
 2007     2008     2009     2010     2011E     2012E
 42.77    29.52    15.92    39.54    44.33     43.79