Organized by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Institute (SEMI), Semicon West was held this year from July 14 to 16 in San Francisco. Preliminary visitor attendance for the show was 16,700, a 2% decrease from last year. Like last year (see IBO 7/31/08), the trade show was held in conjunction with Intersolar North America, which helped to boost the attendance figures as well as the average spirits of the meeting. Solar power may be experiencing uncertainties, but that still compares favorably to the semiconductor industry, which is currently in the midst of a catastrophe.

SEMI typically releases its own mid-year consensus forecast for sales of semiconductors during Semicon West. Last year, SEMI forecasted that total 2008 sales of wafer processing, test, assembly and packaging, and other equipment would drop to $34 billion. This year, the adjusted figure for 2008 was just $29.5 billion, representing a 30% drop from the all-time high in 2007. Worse still, while last year’s forecast projected growth for 2009, the new forecast calls for a drop of more than 50%, reducing the market to less than a third of the size of what it was in 2007. It’s difficult to see how it could drop much further and, indeed, the forecast calls for 47% growth in 2010. Even so, that would still be less than half of the high-water mark in 2007.

Despite the disastrous forecast, the show must go on. And the exhibit halls were quite active at the show, though clearly the booths at Intersolar (held at Moscone Center West) were more crowded than those in the main hall. With the lengthy lead time on most semiconductor projects, the heightened activity on the floor indicates that the rosy forecast for next year may come true, unlike last year. It’s also important to keep in mind that analytical tools, particularly those found in the lab (as opposed to the fab) are generally less affected by the booms and busts in the equipment sector that makes up the bulk of SEMI’s forecast.

There were a number of new analytical products presented at the show. Among the most interesting was Tiger Optics’ Prismatic, the results of over a decade of R&D funded in part by the National Science Foundation. Tiger Optics is a leading company in cavity ringdown spectroscopy, and this new system adds a new wrinkle to that technology. Rather than relying on mirrors, the Prismatic uses total internal reflection in prisms to provide the long path lengths that make cavity ringdown spectroscopy work. The advantage is that the new instrument can access a much broader wavelength range, allowing the simultaneous measurement of multiple gas species. The system has not yet begun shipping, and the price has not been set, though it will likely be around $100,000. The system can provide ppb detection of moisture and other contaminant gases in semiconductor processes and other applications.

Technos International announced the next generation of its Total reflection X-Ray Fluorescence (TXRF) wafer analyzer. The Trex F7 provides contamination monitoring of wafers with elemental detection levels of about 109 atoms/cm2. The system can be outfitted with up to four X-ray sources. The first unit recently shipped in Japan, and it is now available in the US for prices of $1 million and up.

Ocean Optics began shipment of the NIRQuest NIR analyzer about two months ago. There are three main configurations with different gratings that offer different wavelength ranges, with the widest option offering spectra from 900 nm to 2500 nm. Ocean Optics also offers a network adapter that allows the spectrometer to communicate wirelessly via WiFi. Depending on configuration, the price of the NIRQuest is about $15,000–$20,000.

Ambios Technology used Semicon West as an opportunity to introduce the AFP-200 surface measurement and analysis system. The AFP-200 is a three-in-one instrument that, with a switch of the measurement head, can perform stylus profilometry, interferometry and atomic force microscopy on full wafers. This research system integrates Ambios’s several technologies on a single platform with a larger stage. It is now ready for shipment at a price of $135,000.

SEMI 2009 Mid-Year Consensus Forecast

Equipment Type 2008 Sales 2009 Forecast % Chg. 2010 Forecast % Chg. ($B) Sales ($B) Sales ($B)

Wafer Processing $22.03 $10.42 -53% $15.42 48%

Test $3.45 $1.78 -49% $2.54 43%

Assembly & Packaging $2.04 $0.96 -53% $1.34 40%

Other $2 $0.99 -50% 1.43 44%

Total $29.52 $14.14 -52% $20.74 47%