The total market for atomic spectroscopy is forecast to grow 6.5% for 2011, reaching $3.25 billion. Although such growth is quite high for this market, historically speaking, it will fall a bit short of last year’s realized growth of 6.9%, which was strongly buoyed by the improving global economy, outperforming our original expectation that the atomic spectroscopy market would grow 5.3% for 2010. Ongoing improvement in the end-markets will continue to provide this positive effect on the atomic spectroscopy market in the coming year. In terms of individual technologies, the strongest growth is expected in the X-ray diffraction (XRD) market. Industrial applications are broadening at the same time that these markets are gaining renewed strength. Additionally, the research market is particularly important for XRD, and the positive effect of stimulus funding should extend well into 2011 for high-value research diffractometers. XRD growth for 2011 is estimated to be more than 11%.

X-ray fluorescence (XRF) is also expected to contribute strong growth of nearly 8%. As the largest individual technology segment in the atomic spectroscopy market, with 2010 revenues of nearly $850 million, the strong growth in XRF is one of the primary drivers for the overall growth in atomic spectroscopy. XRF has important quality control applications in the detection of hazardous elements in commercial goods from electronics to children’s toys. The slowdown in the global economy had a severe effect on the XRF market, but now that that situation has ameliorated, XRF is again experiencing an expansion.

After the X-ray technologies, the fastest-growing segments of the market are inductively coupled plasma–MS (ICP-MS) and the sum parameter technologies, including total organic carbon (TOC) as its most important component. Both ICP-MS and TOC have many environmental applications, as well as others in the monitoring of process and waste streams for composition and/or contamination. Among the more slowly growing techniques are relatively well-established techniques such as atomic absorbance (AA), inductively coupled plasma (ICP) spectroscopy and arc spark spectroscopy. Although the global growth is relatively poor for these technologies, growth will be considerable in developing countries in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America.

The top five vendors make up just about half the atomic spectroscopy market. Thermo Fisher Scientific maintains its leading position with 15% of the market. Thermo offers products in all of the individual segments and holds a leading position in the sizable XRF market, due in part to its 2005 acquisition of Niton, a maker of handheld XRF instruments (see IBO 3/31/05). PerkinElmer, historically associated with AA, ICP and ICP-MS, continues to hold leading positions in these markets, combining for an 11% share of the total market. Spectris, Rigaku and Bruker are principally involved in XRF and XRD, the two largest individual technology markets. However, the completion of the acquisition of Varian Instruments by Agilent in May 2010 (see IBO 5/15/10) should result in a shift in the 2011 market share when Agilent records a full year’s revenue from the Varian product lines in AA, ICP and ICP-MS. Other important vendors include broad-based suppliers like Shimadzu and more focused players like LECO, General Electric, Spectro Analytical (AMETEK) and Horiba.

 Column Graph: 2009–2012 Total Atomic Spectroscopy Market

   

                       2009     2010      2011      2012

 $ Millions           2,855     3,052     3,252     3,450

 Pie Chart: 2010 Atomic Spectroscopy Suppliers Market Shares

 Thermo Fisher Scientific   15%

 PerkinElmer                11%

 Spectris                    9%

 Rigaku                      7%

 Bruker                      7%

 Other                      51%

 Pie Chart: 2010 Atomic Spectroscopy Market by Product Type

 Initial Systems             67%

 Aftermarket                 18%

 Service                     15%

 Atomic Spectroscopy 2010–2011

                                       Market Share       Growth Rate

 XRF                                     27.8%                7.8%

 XRD                                     16.6%               11.3%

 ICP                                     12.5%                3.9%

 AA                                      13.2%                2.5%

 ICP-MS                                  10.6%                7.1%

 Arc/Spark                               6.8%                 3.8%

 Elemental Analyzers (Inorganic)         6.6%                 4.5%

 Sum Parameters                          3.9%                 7.1%

 Elemental Analyzers (Organic)           2.0%                 5.1%

 Total                                   100.0%               6.5%

 Atomic Spectroscopy Market Leaders

  XRF               Thermo Fisher Scientific, PANalytical (Spectris)

  XRD               Rigaku, Bruker

  ICP               PerkinElmer, Thermo Fisher Scientific

  AA                PerkinElmer, Agilent/Varian

  ICP-MS            Agilent, PerkinElmer

  Arc/Spark         Thermo Fisher Scientific, Spectro (AMETEK)

 Elemental Analyzers

  Inorganic         LECO, Horiba

  TOC               Shimadzu, GE Analytical Instruments

  Organic           LECO, PerkinElmer