Global Growth to Pick Up in 2014

While all geographic regions are primed for a strong rebound from a lackluster performance in 2013, developing markets will lead the way. Other Asia Pacific (excluding China, Japan and China), especially Taiwan, Korea and Indonesia, will perform exceptionally well. China remains the key market for most industry suppliers, while Japan offers significantly improved prospects because of government stimulus programs and the reduced year-to-year effect of a depreciated yen. North America and Europe, the two largest markets, also represent good growth prospects because of improving economic growth and moderating austerity programs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) plans to raise its global growth forecast due to improving US economic conditions. World trade is estimated to grow 4.8% this year, up from 3.0% in 2013, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In a November 2013 survey of 647 executives by the Economist Intelligence Unit, 46% plan to allocate more to capital expenditures this year than in 2013, but 40% stated they would not.

US

According to the latest quarterly Duke University/CFO “Global Business Outlook” survey, conducted in December 2013, 46% of the 400 US CFOs surveyed expect economic conditions for their companies to improve in 2014 versus 2013. In the next 12 months, the CFOs expect their companies to increase R&D and capital spending 2.3% and 7.3%, respectively, on average.

Europe

Fifty-two percent of the 141 CFOs at the European companies in the survey expect their companies to do better this year than in 2013. They expect R&D for their companies to increase 4.1% on average over the next 12 months but expect capital spending to decline 0.7% on average.

Japan

For the 76 surveyed CFOs at Japanese companies, R&D and capital spending is expected to increase 5.4% and 3.0%, respectively, on average, over the next 12 months.

China

In contrast to the OECD, the IMF forecasts Chinese growth to slow this year, increasing 7.3% compared to 7.6% in 2013. The CFOs at the 47 Chinese firms in the survey expect R&D and capital spending at their companies to rise 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively, on average, over 12 months.

Asia

For the CFOs at the 245 Asian firms (excluding Japan) surveyed, 60% expect their firms to do better in 2014. On average, R&D and capital spending are expected to increase 3.4% and 4.6%, respectively, over the next year.

Latin America

The IMF expects South America to grow 3.1% this year, compared to 3.2% in 2013, and Central America to expand 3.9%, the same as last year. For the CFOs at the 191 Latin American firms in the survey, 60% expect 2014 to be better than 2013. On average, their firms’ R&D and capital spending is estimated to rise 2.9% and 5.8%, respectively. The CFOs at 51 Brazilian companies expect their companies’ R&D and capital spending to increase an average of 1.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

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